Across luxury hospitality, a quiet perception shift is influencing how some of the most active buyers are making decisions.

Ask them where they see their next opportunity, and the answer is often a mix of acquiring existing hotels and building from the ground up. That “from the ground up” option — known in the industry as greenfield development — means starting with a piece of land, taking it through planning, design, approvals, and years of construction before the first guest arrives. It’s time-consuming, expensive, and full of risk.

Most investors would prefer to buy an existing, performing hotel if the right one were available. But many believe the rarest existing assets — sub-100 key, ultra-luxury hotels with loyal guests and defensible locations — are already spoken for. Or that if they do come up for sale, they’ll trade quietly to someone else before they can make an offer.

That perception isn’t always true. But it’s strong enough to change where money is going.

Take Aman’s recent land acquisition in Aspen. It’s a prime site and, when complete, will likely be extraordinary. But it’s also years away from opening and comes with all the uncertainty of a major build, to say nothing of their dramatic overpayment to purchase the land. Still, buyers are willing to pay these premiums because they believe the operating hotels they really want aren’t available.

The same logic is supporting two projects we currently represent:  A €330M repositioning of a historic Mediterranean estate, and separately, an operating flagship hotel in a world-class location, with one of the highest guest loyalty rates in its category. Both offer what greenfield can’t: an established aura, a brand halo, and a moat that has taken decades to build.

The irony is that many current owners already have what these buyers are trying to create: an established aura, a brand halo, and a moat that can’t be built overnight.

That combination — scarcity plus perceived non-availability — gives today’s sellers unusual leverage. But it won’t last forever.Once the pipeline of new ultra-luxury rooms comes online, the supply/demand balance shifts. More rooms mean more competition, and the premium for scarcity narrows.

If you own a sub-100 key ultra-luxury hotel, you have something the market thinks it can’t find. That’s a rare position to be in. And in this segment, that kind of leverage is always fleeting.